The
Monte Carlo Model is like rolling dice – a game of chance where each move can
lead to different outcomes. That’s where the Monte Carlo model comes in, not as
a casino game, but as your strategic partner, helping you navigate through the
uncertainties of life.
Understanding the Monte Carlo Model
Imagine
you have a set of dice, and you’re rolling them again and again. The Monte
Carlo model is a bit like that. It doesn’t predict the future, but it helps you
see what might happen based on all the different ways the dice can land.
Applications
in Everyday Terms
Picking the Winning Mix:
Lets
say you want to make a smoothie called ‘making an investment’ in a bank and you
want to know the best ingredients. Lord Monte Carlo will help you pick the best
ingredients that will most likely make the most delicious smoothie by
predicting which ingredients are likely to taste better and which may not taste
great.
Navigating Life’s Rollercoaster:
Investing
and Life have one thing in common, they can both be a bit like a rollercoaster.
Monte Carlo helps you understand how different twists and turns might play out
in your decisions, giving you a sort of roadmap for the ride. So you have a
good chance of where there is smooth sailing, where there might be a drop and
where you might end up upside down. Yikes!
Setting Up Safety Nets:
Imagine
walking on a tightrope, balancing your decisions. Lord Monte Carlo acts like a
safety net, who will help you balance confidently as he can predict the
different outcomes and set up a safety net for you. You can learn to be a pro
like Dick Grayson at rope walking or not, maybe?
Beyond
Decision-Making: Monte Carlo in Layman’s Terms
Bouncing Dice and Predicting Outcomes:
Picture
a pair of dice bouncing around. Monte Carlo helps scientists and engineers
predict how these dice (things like particles or molecules) might behave in
different situations and give out a different number each time. So you can sort
of be like Alan from the ‘Hangover’ franchise or maybe you are more of a James
Bond at ‘Casino Royale’ kind of a guy!
Rolling the Dice for Project Success:
Planning
a big project is like rolling dice. Monte Carlo helps project managers see the
chances of everything going smoothly – hitting deadlines, staying on budget,
and managing resources effectively and all the other shenanigans.
Challenges
and Limitations
Juggling the Possibilities:
Can you juggle? Well you better learn to cos figuring out the
chances of different things happening can be a bit tricky for the Monte
Carlo model. Uncle Monte Carlo is like that control freak that tries to ‘Plan
every outcome in life’ but it is not very well at handling the
uncertainties that Life throws your way.
Assuming Tomorrow’s Weather Based on Today’s:
It’s a bit like assuming tomorrow’s weather will be like today’s.
Sometimes things change, and Uncle Monte Carlo may fall short of not
catching all the surprises.
Conclusion
In
simple terms, the Monte Carlo model is like having a set of dice that doesn’t
predict your rolls but helps you make better choices by exploring all the
possible outcomes. So, sorry but you are not gonna be James
Bond in a Casino anytime soon or Alan from Hangover . It’s not a crystal ball
that will tell the future of the ‘chosen one’ but it sure helps you roll through life’s
uncertainties with a bit more strategy and a lot more confidence! Its kind of
like Batman’s ‘Prep time’ in a way , only thing is just like Batman you also
have to be Ready for the uncertainties in your plan .
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Table of Contents TASK 1 3 1.1 Explain the link between strategic management and leadership 3 1.2 Analyse the impact of management and leadership styles on strategic decisions 5 1.3 Evaluate how leadership styles can be adapted to different situations 6 TASK 2 7 2.1 Review the impact that selected theories of management and leadership have on organizational strategy 7 2.2 Create a leadership strategy that supports organizational direction 9 TASK 3 11 3.1 Use appropriate methods to review current leadership requirements 11 3.2 Plan for the development of future situations requiring leadership 13 TASK 4 15 4.1 Plan the development of leadership skills for a specific requirement 15 4.2 Report on the usefulness of methods used to plan the development of leadership skills 17
TASK 1
1.1 Explain the link between strategic management and leadership Strategic management is defined as decisions taken by the managers in framing strategies in a way so as to augment organization’s performance and achieve competitive advantage (Thompson & Martin 2010) . Strategic leadership is referred as potentiality of a manager to utilize strategies and attain mission and vision of an organization as well as to guide and motivate other members of the organization to achieve organization’s objectives (Hill & Jones 2012) . Both leaders and managers act in the organization to achieve the common goal of the organization. Where managers are concerned about shaping strategic ideas and plans to achieve organizational goals leaders are concerned about undertaking strategic actions to attain the goal. The linkage between strategic management and leadership can be well described using the Drotter pipeline model which identifies six key passages through which a leader grows and is also helpful for the management to develop leaders in the organization (Charan et al. 2010) .
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Figure 1 Leadership Pipeline model Source: (Charan et al. 2010) .
As per the pipeline model in case of first passage that is transition of a leader from managing self to managing others, organization need to ensure that the leader understands what is the organization’s expectations. At this passage a leader need to develop effective communication skill, able to handle conflicts, delegate work properly and should seek 360 degree feedback for own improvement. In case of transition from managing others to managing managers, a leader should inhibit the role of a coach and mentor. Leader should be able to create a competent team and use organization resources effectively. In case of third passage from managing mangers to functional manager, a leader need to think and act strategically and should be aware of the recent trends. In the fourth transition from functional manger to business manager, a leader needs to have a shift in values and perceptions so as to handle the entire business functions. During the fifth passage, from business manager to group manager, a leader need to have the capability to
broader long term goals of an organization and undertake strategic decisions. In the sixth transition from group manager to enterprise manager that is the CEO need to be responsible for building leadership, implementing various decision making methods to cite a few (Charan et al. 2010) . Siemens needs to apply the Drotter pipeline model to overcome the leadership issues in the organization such as the case of bribery (News 2012) . Moreover, organization needs to improve the link between management and leader since employees are reluctant to report to the management in case of any operational issues (The Economists, 2014) .
1.2 Analyse the impact of management and leadership styles on strategic decisions Strategic decisions of an organization are influenced by a number of factors such as style and nature of organization’s leaders, organization’s life cycle stage to cite a few. Leadership style inhibited by mangers especially at the top level forms the most vital factor in shaping strategies for the organization. Developing a competitive and clear strategy is a challenging task and is dependent highly on skills and competencies of a leader. A leader needs to have a style exhibiting the ability of flexibility, bringing necessary changes in organizational culture, long term viewpoint and need to be proactive in anticipating the contingencies to cite a few (Anon 2008) . Management and leadership styles have a considerable impact on the strategic decisions of an organization which is evident from the various organizational issues encountered due to poor leadership style exhibited by Siemens ( Becker 2014) . The organization is believed to have poor communication system. Employees in the organization were unaware regarding the
management’s decision of undergoing for an organization’s restructure. Employees got information only through external parties such as reports from press or agencies, webcast to cite a few. Employees didn’t have any knowledge regarding their job securities as well. As per the recent information strategy of the organization employees were not considered to be a family as considered earlier and hence transparency in information was no more maintained by the management with its employees (Becker 2014) . This type of leadership behavior affected the organization’s business and reputation negatively. Some of the problems faced by Siemens includes losses in running solar power unit, interruption in high speed train deliveries resulting into a fine worth of nearly €116 million in the year 2013, inability to relate offshore wind farms with power grid resulting into a fine nearly to Euro 570 million in the year 2012 (Troianovski 2013) .
1.3 Evaluate how leadership styles can be adapted to different situations Leadership is concerned about the needs of the organization and employees working in the organization. All leadership styles cannot be adopted by a leader as per ones convenience or liking. A leader needs to act differently in varied situations and circumstances so as to solve complex problems at times. Leadership styles need to be tailored by the leaders of any organization as per the demand and necessities of a particular situation. It also includes recognizing what people in the organization demands and what are the challenges that an organization is currently facing (Murray 2010) . The senior management in the Siemens organization wanted to expand its business portfolio. The organization seeks to enter into the world of digitization and automation along with electrification so as to augment business profitability. The management aims at bringing a change in organizational culture for such expansion (The Economists, 2014) . In order to change
7 | Page organizational culture the leaders in Siemens need to adapt transformational leadership style. A transformational leader is characterized by the ability to persuade or inspire others. As expectation from the team member is high this type of leadership style will help Siemens to inspire its employees to participate in bringing about an organizational culture change required to meet business expectations. This will in turn improve the productivity level and engagement of its employees (Ricketts & Ricketts 2010) . Siemens need to improve its operational performance as failure in number of projects has affected the profitability of the organization considerably. Reasons of such failure being employees fright to report to the management at times when problems were encountered during project execution (The Economists, 2014) . Such situation demands the management to adopt a democratic and participative leadership style (Ricketts & Ricketts 2010) . As per this style that is transformational leadership, Siemens will be able to improve employee participation in successful completion of the project by giving them ownership and rewarding them for reporting in case of any project related issues.
TASK 2
2.1 Review the impact that selected theories of management and leadership have on organizational strategy Management and leadership are the two most powerful and dynamic tool commanding people and guiding the organization’s activities. There are many contemporary as well as sophisticated theories on management and leadership that had been proposed by theorists. Some of the theories are Transformational theory, Transactional theories, Behavioural theory, Functional theory,
8 | Page Great man theory, Situational theory, Trait theory to name a few (Chemers 2014 ; Gill 2006 ; Waite & Chiefs 2008) . The management and leadership theories that have been selected are transformational and transactional theories to review the impact of these theories on organization’s strategy. Transformational theories: Transformational theory was framed by Burns (1978) and later by Bass (1995, 1998) (Bass & Riggio 2006) . As per this theory a transformational leader has the capability and skill to persuade and motivate its team members for the successful accomplishment of organization’s objectives by aligning individual’s goals and values with the organization values and goals. Howell and Avolio (1993), affirmed that a transformational leader is characterized by five key traits which are inspiration, simulation, vision, team building and coaching (Bass & Riggio 2006) . There are four components of a transformational leader which are idealized influence, inspirational motivation, intellectual simulation and individual consideration. A transformational leader develops strong communication network in the organization by disseminating organization’s objectives and vision clearly to the organization’s members (Bass & Riggio 2006) . Impact on Organizational strategy: Since the organization, Siemens is targeting for a change in organizational culture so as to expand its business operations from electrification to digitization and automation it is essential to communicate to the employees the need and benefit of an organizational change and to persuade and motivate them for such change. Moreover, in Siemens interpersonal skills between management and employees is very poor due to huge communication gap. A transformational leader will be able to communicate properly the organization’s strategy and overcome resistant to culture change.
9 | Page Transactional theories: As per Burns (1978), a transactional leader is one who is task oriented and has the ability to guide its members in a specific direction so as to achieve organizational goals (Martin 2006) . A transactional leader is characterized by contingent reward and management by exception (Chemers 2014) . Followers need to follow the instructions and guidance of the transactional leader and the leader in turn rewards its followers. Apart from rewards a transactional leader adopts various other approaches in order to accomplish organization’s goals such as appealing to the group members, punishment, being aggressive to cite a few. However, involvement of transactional leaders as far as group activity is concerned is less and intervenes when the group displays underperformance (Martin 2006) . Impact on Organizational strategy:Siemens have been facing various operational issues such as project failures, late deliveries to cite a few. The company’s ethical dimension was at stake due to bribery issues. One of the major concerns of Siemens is employees’ unenthusiastic attitude to report any problem with management which in turn is hampering its organizational performance. A transactional leader will be able to motivate employees through reward and proper guidance to improve performance and execute work properly.
2.2 Create a leadership strategy that supports organizational direction Leaders at any level in the organization require having expertise and skills in certain areas. Some of these areas are knowledge and competencies in technological area, good communication and interpersonal skills, competent conceptual proficiency so as to frame strategic decisions and solve complex issues (Leatherman & Leatherman 2008) . Siemens in order to bring a change in its organizational culture and improve business productivity needs to frame a leadership strategy which will support its organizational direction and strategy. Some of the proposed strategies are:
6 | Page
Self leadership: As per self leadership strategy a leader before leading other members in the organization need to be self influenced, self regulated and self committed. A leader needs to undergo self assessment so as to explore and identify that it possesses requisite skills, knowledge, qualities and nature of being an effective leader. It will help a leader to realize its capabilities to achieve organization’s success through the application of its skills and talents. Leaders at the Siemens organization need to align their vision with that of the organizational vision. A leader needs to be clear about organizational objectives, values and mission so that they can communicate the same clearly to other members of the organization and motivate them to attain the same (Neck 2006) . Team Building: Leaders at Siemens need to give priority in building an effective and productive team. People in an organization are from different ethnic and cultural backgrounds. Employees differ in terms of technical knowledge, skills, competencies, specializations as well. It is imperative for leaders to consider all these factors while building a team so as to maintain team cohesiveness and set team culture and values in alignment with the organizational culture and values (Malone 2009) . Clarity in role of every team members need to be maintained to avoid role conflict. Leaders also require taking the responsibility of assessing team performance and undertake team development process on continuous basis through effective training and development. This will help in improving productivity of team members and hence overall organizational performance will also improve (Malone 2009) . Mentoring: Mentoring refers to advising, motivating and inspiring to cite a few for uplifting employee’s behaviour. The main objective of a mentor is to help its mentee grow and develop in the organization (Rothwell & Chee 2013) . As per this strategy a leader in organization needs to play the role of a mentor that is advice and guides its employees so as to enhance employee’s
11 | Page motivation level. Siemens needs to adopt a mentoring approach to improve the productivity capacity and potentiality of its employees. This will also help the organization in building a learning organization as well. Through mentoring employees will be able to share the experience of leaders and gain knowledge through it which in turn will contribute to the overall success of the organization. Through this strategy Siemens will be in a position to develop an organizational culture which will exhibit high job satisfaction, less employee turnover and high level of employee development (Aubrey 2011) .
TASK 3
3.1 Use appropriate methods to review current leadership requirements For an organization it is inevitable to have competent and skilled leaders which will not only be a support to the employees but also aid in achievement of organizational objectives too. Leaders to a large extent are responsible for organizational success mainly becausetheir traits. Siemens presently is experiencing major restructuring which requires effective leadership skills. A complete overhaul of existing strategic approach is proposed in Siemens as it to a large extent suffers from issues related to bribery, inappropriate and inefficient communications, non- transparency in information sharing, instant decision making, late deliveries of contracts, casting off plans, declining profitability, negative impact on organizational image (Dietz & Gillespie 2012 ; The Economist 2013) . Along with this, existing organizational structure of Siemens designed by Peter Löscher with four major departments namely, energy, industry, health care infrastructure-and-cities was unable to support organizational operations and vision and thus resulted in internal operational inefficiencies (The Economist 2013) .
In order to review the leadership requirements of any organization for example Siemens in this case trait leadership theory is best applicable. It is mainly because this theory assists is indentifying varied traits required for an effective leader. Trait theory of leadership: The trait theory of leadership puts forward that definite set of characteristics establish the type of leadership that will be adopted by particular human being. These characteristics comprise of ability to take responsibilities, risks, authorities, approach and relationships with followers, capability of taking decisions, level of tolerance, level of self confidence, extent of social interactions, creative spirits are a few considered to be a few examples (Northouse 2012) . Along with a proficient leader should also posses skills related to efficient communication, management of time and stress, effective listening, planning, management of workforce, motivating workforce to name a few (Northouse 2012) . In order to review potential or current leadership requirements, the traits mainly required for leadership designation are identified (Mills et al. 2006) . Based on this list mapping between prospective leaders and leadership requirements is undertaken to determine the best suitable leader. With the help of trait leadership theory, an organization will not only be able to identify varied leadership traits required but also use them as benchmarks to critically scrutinize and assess leadership performance. Presently the culture of Siemens is infected with a number of issues mentioned above and thus change is highly essential. By adoption of this theory Siemens to a large extent will be in a position to identify the most appropriate leaders who will be successful in meeting the leadership requirements essential to bring about a change within the organization. Ultimately by identifying required leadership traits Siemens will be able to overcome organizational problems thereby smoothly undertaking overall restructuring and renovation of organizational set up. An effective
13 | Page leader with effective leadership qualities will be able to bring in innovative ideas for supporting organizational restructuring process and facilitate in bringing about a positive cultural change.
3.2 Plan for the development of future situations requiring leadership In order to efficiently execute their responsibilities and make appropriate decisions it is inevitable for leaders to be well informed along with being attentive peripheral activities within business environment (PriceWater House Coppers 2008) . Leaders also need to be conscious along with being responsive towards changes in technology, legal compliances and regulatory framework especially when operating on a global scale. Thus for leaders of Siemens need to consider not only the facets of business environment prevailing in Germany but also significantly consider the global ones also. For Siemens in order to grow economically in a sustained manner it is essential to foster leadership that will help the company is overcoming issues related to bribery, ineffective communication, and change resistance (Bradt 2013 ; Dietz & Gillespie 2012) . Along with these micro level issues, Siemens also need to overcome macro level issues related to declining organizational profitability and intensification of competition affecting Siemens’ basic existence (Bryant 2013) . The future goal of Siemens is specific which is defined in its statement of Vision2020 (Siemens 2014) . The statement outlines Siemens’s strong commitment towards gaining leadership by emerging as a sustainable company by consistently enhancing its performance and expanding business into company lucrative business ventures which will also trigger organizational growth (Siemens 2014) .Siemens’ dedication towards achievement of this vision is highly evident from the decisions taken by the organization. One such decision was changing its top management board along with shuffling of its teams responsible for corporate-oversight in the year 2013 (Boston 2013) . During these changes even the Chief Operating Officer (CEO) was also
14 | Page changed which was a shocking happening in Siemens (Bryant 2013) . Another massive jolt that was received by the people associated with Siemens was layoff of approximately 12000 employees under the organizational restructuring plan (Becker 2014) . This was mainly because these job cuts were not undertaken as a part of planned change. Further the employees were not very clearly communicated regarding the same which added to their utter dismay. In order to convert this ‘Vision 2020’ dream into reality having effective and efficient leadership for Siemens is the need of the hour. Highly result-oriented leaders with strong leadership are essential for different business functions of Siemens laid down under its matrix format ranging from manufacturing to finance, marketing to research and development and manpower management to administration (Trott 2008) . In order to aid in achievement of this vision of Siemens it is unavoidable for Siemens to have effective leaders. These leaders with their higher performance quotient will help in determining the course of action that needs to be pursued along with overcoming all the evils to which Siemens is presently subjected to. The future developments in Siemens are backed by principles of agility, leanness, flexibility and reliability (Bryant 2013) . Thus leadership requirement for Siemens needs to be developed accordingly. By appropriately planning for the future requirements, Siemens will be able to avoid situations that require sudden actions and thus proactively pursue control mechanisms through effective leadership.
TASK 4
4.1 Plan the development of leadership skills for a specific requirement
15 | Page Leadership plays a dominant role in crafting of organizational strategies that facilitates an organization is gaining competitive edge thus gaining long run sustainability and profitability. It is the leader which helps in shaping organizational vision along with varied strategic objectives that needs to be pursued for achievement of the same. Thus a leader lays the foundations for organizational culture and defines philosophy of an organization. In order to achieve theexpectedfuturistic situation, the leadership skills required in Siemens should be based upon the following parameters: Ethical Behavior to Restore Positive Image: The negative image due to rampant bribery practiced in Siemens is one of the most important challenges that present leaders needs to work upon (Dietz & Gillespie 2012) . Thus the focus would be on restoring positive image. In order to do so, the leaders need to preach and practice ethical behavior by defining values and developing standards for the same (Pelletier & Bligh 2008) . These values and standards will act as guidelines and thus inspire followers to fall in pursuit. Change Orientation: The present culture of Siemens which is 166-year old is highly resistant to change (Bradt 2013) . But in order to realize this vision developing a culture that is dynamic and not resistant to change is the only way out. Thus the leader should prepare its followers for tomorrow by motivating them to have a flexible approach towards change. Cultural change which with a more open attitude towards change is to be encouraged by the leader (Bradt 2013) . Effective Communications: Instances in Siemens highlight that presence of huge communication gaps within the system has not only plagued the organization but also resulted in occurrences of such massive problems. The leader thus should encourage two way communications along with promoting communication transparency. In order to do so, advanced
16 | Page technology should be adopted that would promote free flow of information across all functions and departments of Siemens thereby connecting global operations and employees working in different nations (Hernez-Broome & Hughes 2004) . In order to develop the above identified skills an integrated approach in which workshop learning and on-the-job learning will be developed (Nelson et al. 2011) . The plan would comprise of formal leadership development programs and action learning. Formal Leadership Development Programs: Siemens has been an acknowledged for its efforts undertaken to develop leaders from within the organization. The company has a personalized leadership development program that focuses on development of leadership by concentrating on 9 major perspectives namely, strategic-creativity, management of change,enlargement of teams, value, compassion towards intercultural aspects, focus and achievement of business results, alliances and persuasion, leadership and orientation towards customers (Inside HR 2014) . This leadership programs should be promoted more aggressively and concentrate on specific leadership skills required for overcoming current issues outlined above. Action Learning: In action learning leaders will be subjected to real life situations occurring within Siemens and thus learn while resolving practical issues (Saks et al. 2010) . Basically leaders will be either exposed to such problems with which are not common or to similar situations in unusual environment (Nelson et al. 2011) . This will nourish leadership skills among potential leaders by testing their existing capabilities.
4.2 Report on the usefulness of methods used to plan the development of leadership skills
The plan for development of leadership skills will only be successful when leaders resort to self- awareness plans. These plans help them in identifying their potential competencies and weak points which they can improvise upon when subjected to planned integrated leadership development approach (Raelin 2006) . The foundation of effective leadership and its development is laid upon experiences by a leader in different settings namely workshop learning and on-the- job learning. The basic objective of any leadership skills development program is to enhance an individual’s attitude, skills and knowledge thereby raising his or her efficiency levels to perform effectively in present and future circumstances. The usefulness of the above methods will be explored from dependability and honesty, self learning, and futuristic perspectives. Dependability and Honesty Perspective: Integrity implies consistency of performance delivered by a leader. The chosen methods for leadership development will primarily focus on enhancing leader’s behavior in a positive and ethical direction which will thus motivate followers to perform on similar lines (Peterson 2004) . To bring about a complete change within Siemens, transformational and charismatic leadership is required which is possible only when the leadership development models are based upon this perspective. These methods would focus on nurturing leadership skills by focusing on brining about change within the organization with ethical perspectives along with exercising control on intentions to be involved in negative or unethical activities (Palanski & Yammarino 2009) . With the aid of dependability and honesty perspective a leader will be in a position to resolve issues arising at differing organizational levels and thus smoothenachievement of Siemens’ vision. Self-Learning: Individualistic development is at the core of any leadership development program. These development programs would foster self-learning among leaders through the
18 | Page process of self-discovery of individual strengths and weaknesses (Raelin 2006) . The leaders by having an understanding about self will be able to take measures to overcome weaknesses and convert strengths in competitive advantages (Kolb 2014) . Self-learning will help leaders to take knowledgeable actions. The integrated leadership development program in Siemens will also focus on this perspective and thus will be useful in enhancing leadership skills. Futuristic Perspective: For leaders to be able to take proactive actions it is essential to have a futuristic perspective (popularly known as vision). Based on the present circumstances they should be in a position to forecast the future and take actions accordingly. These leadership development programs in Siemens will help in developing this futuristic perspective among organizational employees especially among potential leaders (Wang et al. 2005) . In a dynamic business environment in which companies are striving develop human assets to gain competitive advantage developing effective leaders is highly significant (Kolb 2014) . Developing leaders requires investment of scare resources and thus organizations need to be cautious while determining methods for doing so. Siemens is already experiencing a tough time and in on the verge of complete organizational change. Thus the leadership development programs need to consider this aspect and successful help the organization to undergo change. Ultimately the usefulness of leadership development programs will be tested during this hard- hitting time faced by Siemens.
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